户籍制度扭曲及放松对经济的影响:理论与实证

户籍制度是我国劳动力流动的主要障碍.那么,当前我国的户籍扭曲程度几何?户籍制度放松对经济又会有怎样的影响?对这些问题的回答将有助于政府评估户籍制度改革的空间和经济效益.文章在Hansen和Prescott(2002)的两部门劳动力流动模型基础上,将工人分为农业和非农户口,引入户籍扭曲因子,构建两部门两类工人的户籍扭曲模型;然后,使用1984?2013年宏观经济数据度量户籍扭曲程度,并对2013年我国户籍制度逐渐放松过程中经济变量的变化进行模拟;最后,文章建立了包含"农业与非农"和"本地与外地"户籍差异的省份异质性户籍扭曲模型.研究表明:(1)经济和户籍制度改革的不同步导致了1984?2013年我国户籍扭曲程度呈现倒"U"形变化,且相较于韩国尚有较大的改善空间;(2)以韩国为参照,若2013年我国户籍制度完全放开,经济达到均衡时,农业部门和非农部门的就业人数将分别下降58.83%和上升26.92%,工资率将分别上升19.44%和下降6.77%,社会增加值将增长15.33%,这说明社会经济效率将得到提升,贫富差距将缩小.文章丰富和完善了户籍扭曲的理论模型,从减少劳动力流动摩擦的视角为政府制定相关政策提供了参考.     

社会主义核心价值观融入高职"思政"课堂研究综述

本文全面梳理了当前国内学者对社会主义核心价值观培育融入高职院校思政课堂研究的概貌,为研究高职院校"思政"课教学培育和践行核心价值观的"落细、落小、落实"打下基础.     

INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.     

Communication and Comovement: Evidence from Online Stock Forums

We study investor communication and stock comovement using a novel data set from an active online stock forum in China. We find substantial comovement among the returns of a stock and its “related stocks,” which are frequently discussed in the subforum dedicated to the given stock. Comovement is greater when the discussion of related stocks is more intensive. Further, the effect of communication on comovement is stronger for stocks associated with higher information uncertainty. Codiscussed stocks are more actively traded and experience more correlated trading. A trading strategy that exploits communication‐driven comovement generates abnormal returns. Our findings highlight the impact of investor communication on asset comovement.     

Unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing

Labor unemployment insurance reduces unemployment concerns. We argue that these benefits moderate incentives to smooth earnings to reduce employees’ concerns about unemployment risk. Using exogenous variations in unemployment insurance benefits, we find evidence consistent with this argument. We also find that the link between unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing is stronger when there is higher unemployment risk and when the firm is likely to employ more low-wage workers, who find unemployment insurance benefits especially useful. Our paper contributes to the literature by showing that public policy decisions such as unemployment insurance have significant, albeit probably unintended, externalities on corporate financial reporting.     

非正式制度影响下的农村集市市场主体行为分析

农村集市在我国有着悠久的历史．它的产生和发展与农村社会赖以生存的传统文化和习俗等非正式制度有着不可忽视的联系。本文分析了小农思想和传统的家族观念等因素对农村集市市场主体交易场所选择的影响，并用进化博弈论的方法分析了有限理性前提下的农村集市上的销售者和购买者的互动．并得出了由此产生的进化稳定均衡点。强调了非正式制度对农村集市的重要作用。     

国家助学贷款中信息不对称问题及其矫正

国家助学贷款工作的实施,为帮助贫困大学生顺利完成学业发挥着重要作用。但是由于助学贷款中的信息不对称所引起的逆向选择和道德风险问题使该项工作陷入了贷还两难的窘境。因此,必须通过建立完善的信用制度,健全法律法规,设计合理的还贷激励机制,构建风险分担体系,加大高校的工作投入,使助学贷款工作能够顺利实施,发挥更大的作用。     

C++对象布局分析

分析了目前最为流行的面向对象的开发工具C 的对象布局，并进一步分析了其形成原因。     

鹿溪河漂流

“岸芷汀兰,郁郁青青……”．当我乘橡皮艇漂流在成都近郊鹿溪河上的时候,范仲淹的此句名言便一再地从我的脑海中欢快地蹦跳出来。此时正是初夏的五月．明丽的阳光透过两岸浓郁的林木,哗啦啦地照射在或急或缓的河流上,这条成都境内的岷江二级支流所凸现的波光粼粼,美仑美奂,着实让人心醉:散发着亲切泥土气息的河水涌动两岸倒